Evaluation of the impact of various macroeconomic factors on the economic growth of Ecuador, 1965-2018.
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Abstract
The measurement of economic growth, through its main indicator, the Gross Domestic Product, is essential for those responsible for the economic policy of a country. There are three different ways of calculating the Gross Domestic Product, one of them is the spending method that includes five important macroeconomic variables in its calculation. This research aims to quantify the incidence of each of these variables in the economic growth of Ecuador. For this, using the information corresponding to these variables for the period 1965-2018, the equation for the calculation of the Gross Domestic Product by the expenditure method was estimated, by means of a multiple linear regression by ordinary least squares, once it was statistically validated, the standardized coefficients of each macroeconomic variable involved in it were analyzed to assess how decisive it is for the Gross Domestic Product of Ecuador. It was shown that consumption is the variable that has the greatest weight to generate aggregate demand, followed by exports, conversely, investment is revealed as the macroeconomic variable that has the least impact on Ecuadorian economic growth. As fundamental conclusions, it was determined that consumption is the main determinant of economic growth in Ecuador, so that policies that reduce it directly affect economic growth, and it was also found that investment is the component that least impacts, which implies need to design policies that encourage it.
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