Calculando el riesgo de insolvencia, de los métodos tradicionales a las redes neuronales artificiales. Una revisión de literatura

Contenido principal del artículo

Maryann Katherine Ludeña Dávila
Luis Bernardo Tonon Ordóñez

Resumen

En la administración financiera de toda organización el cálculo del riesgo de insolvencia se ha convertido en un parámetro importante, buscando anticiparse a la eventualidad de llegar a tener un problema económico y generar insolvencia. El objetivo de este trabajo es determinar si en el cálculo del riesgo de insolvencia, el uso de redes neuronales artificiales genera mejores resultados que las metodologías tradicionales, buscando las principales características dentro de las aplicaciones realizadas por distintos autores a través del tiempo. De esta manera se observan las principales variables que pueden evidenciar que la aplicación de la metodología de redes neuronales facilita el cálculo del riesgo de insolvencia.  A través de la revisión bibliográfica, en el período 1992-2021, con el uso del método analítico-sintético se puede evidenciar que el modelo expuesto es considerado como eficiente según sus resultados, con ajustes que, en la mayoría de los casos expuestos, superan el 80% de eficacia. Los resultados encontrados permitieron concluir que la estructura básica de una red neuronal viene dada por tres capas: una de entrada, una de salida y una oculta. Sin embargo, el número de nodos es el que varía en cada una de las aplicaciones realizadas por los distintos autores, dado que los mismos representan a las variables, en este caso indicadores financieros más relevantes según la aplicación planteada. Finalmente se logró evidenciar cuáles son los indicadores financieros más usados en las distintas aplicaciones de redes neuronales. Todo indica que las redes neuronales generan resultados más efectivos que los métodos tradicionales. 

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Ludeña Dávila, M. K., & Tonon Ordóñez, L. B. (2021). Calculando el riesgo de insolvencia, de los métodos tradicionales a las redes neuronales artificiales. Una revisión de literatura. INNOVA Research Journal, 6(3), 270-287. https://doi.org/10.33890/innova.v6.n3.2021.1790
Sección
Actores de la economía y desarrollo empresarial
Biografía del autor/a

Maryann Katherine Ludeña Dávila, Universidad del Azuay, Ecuador

Ingeniera en Contabilidad y Auditoría por la Universidad Politécnica Salesiana. Título de postgrado: Maestría en Administración de Empresas – Mención Finanzas. Desde el 2016 Liquidación de Créditos Cooperativa Juventud Ecuatoriana Progresista. Desde el 2018 Analista financiero en la empresa CRESAFE CIA. LTDA. 

Luis Bernardo Tonon Ordóñez, Universidad del Azuay, Ecuador

Economista graduado en la Universidad del Azuay. Tiene los siguientes títulos de postgrado: Diplomado Superior en Finanzas, Mercado de Valores y Negocios Fiduciarios. Diplomado Superior en Negociación Internacional. Maestría en Administración de Empresas. Desde el 2003 es profesor de la Universidad del Azuay en las áreas de Economía y Finanzas. Ha participado en diversos grupos de investigación y actualmente es parte del Observatorio Empresarial de la Universidad del Azuay. 

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